POT ODDS AND “OUTS”

POT ODDS AND “OUTS”

Probability and odds are huge factors in Texas hold 'em. Players use odds to determine their actions. The chances of finishing a flush or a straight, the probability of getting an over card, the percentage of times you're going to flop a set to match your pocket pair are all important factors in poker. Knowledge of these statistics is a key to winning. In online games especially with very few (if any) tells, statistical knowledge becomes the main factor when choosing whether to bet, call, or fold.

Pot odds decisions are one of poker's most elementary, yet it is one of the most common mistakes made by amateur players at all levels. You will most likely always find a player who is making bad pot odd decisions or ignoring them entirely, meanwhile paying off the rest of the table!

In Texas Hold 'Em, you commonly use outs and pot odds the most. This is also the starting point for those who want to learn about poker odds. To those out there who "ain't good at countin' much", you better get good because that is how it's done. Outs are defined as a card in the deck that helps you make your hand. At this point it's only simple division.

The numerator (top number) will be the number of outs you have. The denominator (bottom number) is the number of cards left that we haven't seen. The result will be the percentage chance of making one of those outs. Therefore,

the most math you'll be doing will be dividing small numbers by 50 (pre-flop), 47 (after the flop), or 46 (after the turn)

Pot odds are as easy as computing outs. You compare your outs or your chance of winning to the size of the pot. If your chance of winning is significantly better than the ratio of the pot size to a bet, then you have good pot odds. If it's lower, then you have bad pot odds.

For example, say you are in a $5/$10 hold em game with Jack-Ten facing one opponent on the turn. You have an outside straight draw with a board of 2-5-9-Q, and only the river card left to make it. Any 8 or any King will finish this straight for you, so you have 8 outs (four 8's and 4 K's left in the deck) and 46 unseen cards left. 8/46 is almost the same as a 1 in 6 chance of making it. Your sole opponent bets $10. If you take a $10 bet you could win $200. $200/$10 is 20, so you stand to make 20x more if you call. 1/6 higher than 1/20, so pot odds say that calling wouldn't be a bad idea.

The next step is to use bet odds and implied odds. That's tougher, because it involves predicting reactions of other players. With bet odds, you try to factor in how many people are going to call a raise. With implied odds, you're thinking about reactions for the rest of the game. One last example on implied odds... Say it's another $5/$10 hold em game and you have a four flush on the flop. Your neighbor bets, and everyone else folds. The pot is $50 at this point. First you figure out your chance of hitting your flush on the turn, and it comes out to about 19.1% (about 1 in 5). You have to call this $5 bet versus a $50 pot, so that's a 10x payout. 1/5 is higher than 1/10, so bet odds are okay, but you must consider that this guy's going to bet into you on the turn and river also. That's the $5 plus two more $10 bets. So now you’re facing $25 more till the end of the hand.

You have to consider your chances of hitting that flush on the turn or river, which makes it about 35% (better than 1 in 3 now), but you have to invest $25 for a finishing pot of $100: $100/$25 with 1 in 4. That's pretty close. But there's more! If you don't make it on the turn, it'll change your outs and odds! You'll have a 19.6% chance of hitting the flush (little worse than 1 in 5), but a $20 investment for a finishing pot of $100! $100/$20 is 1 in 5. So the chances would take a nasty turn if you didn't hit it! What's makes it more complicated is that if you did hit it on the turn, you could raise him back, and get an extra $20 or maybe even $40 in the pot. Is there an easier way to calculate pot odds? Thankfully, there are several short cuts that have been devised to make a quick judgment for pot odds.

One of the easiest methods is to take your total outs, multiply times 2, and then add 2. This is roughly a percentage chance of making your hand.

For example, say you have an inside straight draw with 4 outs. 4x2 = 8. Add 2, for a total of 10. You have roughly a 10% chance to make your hand. Your call should be no more than 10% of what is already in the pot. This method is quick and decently effective, though certain calculations will be a bit off. This method does not take into consideration the fact that you may have more than one card remaining to come; it simply estimates your chance of hitting your “out” on your next card.

There are a number of tools online that help you calculate your odds. Just do a Google search, and you’ll find several. Keep in mind, though, that using them may significantly slow your play and cause your fellow players to interpret this as a “tell”.

Playing your pocket cards is key, but you’ll also need to know some strategies when it comes to the flop and the river.